The IREX Index suffered a sharp -18.3% drop in February 2025, closing at 14,540 points, further deepening the negative trend that has persisted since mid-2024. The index of pure renewable small and mid-caps listed on Borsa Italiana diverged from the positive trend of other markets: FTSE All-Share (+5.6%), FTSE Italia Energia (+0.7%), and the main European indices (DAX +3.8%, CAC +2.0%, IBEX +7.9%).
Energy prices showed mixed trends: Brent and WTI fell sharply (-4.7% and -5.2%, respectively), while TTF gas recorded a steep -13.0% decline. Conversely, the PUN (Italian wholesale electricity price) increased by +5.1%.
Renewable-energy companies continued to post declines, with ESI (+12%) as the only company bucking the trend, thanks to improved operational performance and participation in several industry events that increased its visibility.
Among the worst performers were Alerion (-19.2%), whose downturn was due to downward revisions in sales and profitability forecasts, as well as a contraction in revenues and EBITDA over the first nine months of 2024. These factors fueled investor uncertainty, and the company is reportedly evaluating an update to its industrial plan to address the situation.
Innovatec (-14.9%) fell again following the demerger in favor of Haiki+ (perhaps reflecting the market’s preference for the circular economy over renewables) and an additional downward revision in analysts’ estimates. EEMS (-11.8%) also declined, affected by board changes and the issuance of a second tranche of convertible bonds approved in December 2024.
The global economy is stabilizing at a growth rate below the long-term average, with risks tied to political uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, inflation, and climate-related disruptions. Worldwide inflation is expected to fall to 2.7% in 2025–26 (World Bank), broadly in line with the targets of many advanced and emerging economies, supported by lower energy and food prices, improved supply chains, and the effects of tight monetary policy. Global financial conditions, which had eased in mid-2024, have since tightened again in emerging markets.
In February 2025, the ECB continued its monetary-easing policy, cutting interest rates to support the Eurozone economy, based on inflation expectations and monetary-policy transmission indicators. This decision reflects the central bank’s intent to sustain the economy amid global uncertainty while maintaining price stability as its key objective. In Germany, industrial production surprised to the upside in January (+2%), driven by the automotive sector (+6.4%), although it remained -1.6% year-on-year.
The IREX’s negative performance in February highlights the ongoing challenges of the Italian renewable-energy sector, as well as the “thin-stock” nature of the small-mid-cap companies that make up the index. However, there are positive policy signals: the transitional FER X scheme includes a second auction in 2025, with the first FER 2 auction (biogas and biomass) expected to conclude by May, and the second FER 2 auction (geothermal) scheduled for July–September. The first FER X auction is expected in 2026. Meanwhile, Italy’s Constitutional Court overturned the Sardinia moratorium, which had slowed the permitting process for renewable projects.
Will these measures, however, be enough to lift renewable-energy stocks?
Some optimism may come from EU industrial policy, which is showing signs of renewed momentum as foreseen in the first-100-day agenda of the von der Leyen II Commission. Yet, real progress will depend on implementation in Italy: the announcement of the first MACSE storage auction (September 2025) is not sufficient — what’s needed is the timely definition of competitive-procedure schedules across all renewable-energy support mechanisms.
