{"id":31014,"date":"2025-02-18T11:09:11","date_gmt":"2025-02-18T09:09:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.althesys.com\/thinktank\/prosegue-il-trend-negativo-delle-rinnovabili-quotate-irex-in-calo-a-gennaio\/"},"modified":"2025-10-15T10:53:48","modified_gmt":"2025-10-15T08:53:48","slug":"prosegue-il-trend-negativo-delle-rinnovabili-quotate-irex-in-calo-a-gennaio","status":"publish","type":"thinktank","link":"https:\/\/www.althesys.com\/en\/thinktank\/prosegue-il-trend-negativo-delle-rinnovabili-quotate-irex-in-calo-a-gennaio\/","title":{"rendered":"The negative trend in listed renewables continues: IREX down in January"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The performance of the main Borsa Italiana indices and the IREX Index<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

The IREX Index<\/strong> continued the negative trend that began in May 2024<\/strong>, falling by 8.3% in January 2025<\/strong> and closing at 17,797 points<\/strong> (-39.6% year-on-year<\/strong>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After a -7.5% decline in December<\/strong>, the index of pure renewable small and mid-caps<\/strong> listed on Borsa Italiana<\/strong> once again diverged from the broader market\u2019s positive performance: the FTSE All-Share<\/strong> rose +6.5%<\/strong>, the FTSE Italia Energia<\/strong> +3.4%<\/strong>, and the main European indices also advanced (DAX +9.2%<\/strong>, CAC +7.7%<\/strong>, IBEX +6.7%<\/strong>). Energy prices also increased: Brent<\/strong> and WTI<\/strong> both rose by +2.6%<\/strong>, TTF gas<\/strong> jumped +9.4%<\/strong>, and the PUN<\/strong> increased by +5.9%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, renewables did not benefit<\/strong> from this trend\u2014despite the greater theoretical appeal of green investments\u2014remaining penalized by slower policy support<\/strong> and institutional uncertainty<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some companies in the sector posted positive performances, while others suffered heavy losses. Frendy Energy<\/strong> (+14.8%) recorded sustained growth thanks to strong financial results and encouraging development prospects following the acquisition of new plants. ESI<\/strong> (+5.1%) also rose modestly after announcing several small contracts, while Iniziative Bresciane<\/strong> (+3.4%) closed the month positively, supported by an operational efficiency program aimed at optimizing cost management.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the negative side, two companies stood out. Innovatec<\/strong> plunged -75.2%<\/strong> following the demerger in favor of Haiki+<\/strong>, which will hold the environment and circular-economy business unit<\/strong>, and after a downward revision of revenue forecasts<\/strong> due to delays in obtaining permits. Seri Industrial<\/strong> also fell sharply (-9.1%<\/strong>), likely due to early leaks about 2024 results and 2025 guidance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Global GDP growth<\/strong> is projected at 3.3% in 2025 and 2026<\/strong>, below the historical average of 3.7% (2000\u20132019)<\/strong> (IMF). The 2025 forecast remains broadly unchanged from October 2024, thanks to an upward revision for the United States (2.7%)<\/strong>, offsetting weaker performances in other major economies. However, the Euro Area<\/strong> remains fragile, with growth expected at 1.0%<\/strong>, and Italy<\/strong> at +0.7%<\/strong>, unchanged from the previous year. Germany<\/strong>, revised down sharply (from -0.2% in 2024<\/strong> to +0.3% in 2025<\/strong>), may further weigh on European economic confidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Globally, inflation<\/strong> is expected to decline to 4.2% in 2025<\/strong> and 3.5% in 2026<\/strong>, with advanced economies reaching price-stability targets earlier than emerging ones. Nevertheless, the overall picture remains uncertain: monetary and fiscal policies<\/strong>, geopolitical risks<\/strong>, and financial stability<\/strong> will play crucial roles in shaping growth over the next few years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This macroeconomic backdrop is having a clear impact on the renewable-energy sector<\/strong> and the IREX Index<\/strong>, which continues to feel the effects of Europe\u2019s sluggish growth<\/strong> and domestic regulatory uncertainty<\/strong>. In Italy, the sector awaits the implementation of new policy measures<\/strong>. The latest initiative\u2014the transitional FER X scheme for 2025<\/strong>, supporting mature renewables\u2014has been signed by the MASE<\/strong>, but timelines for competitive procedures<\/strong> remain undefined. The same uncertainty applies to the MACSE mechanism<\/strong> for storage investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Donald Trump\u2019s return to the White House<\/strong> and the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement<\/strong> have raised concerns over a renewed shift toward fossil fuels<\/strong>. The full impact of this decision on the global energy market<\/strong> remains to be seen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The trade war<\/strong> and tariffs imposed by the United States<\/strong> could have contrasting effects<\/strong>\u2014penalizing European industrial exports<\/strong>, but potentially lowering Chinese technology prices<\/strong>, as Chinese manufacturers seek new markets in Europe. In this regard, the EU\u2019s new industrial policy<\/strong>, promised within the first 100 days of the von der Leyen II Commission<\/strong>, is awaited as a potential turning point to strengthen Europe\u2019s competitiveness in green-technology manufacturing<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, Italy<\/strong> continues its energy policy shift toward nuclear power<\/strong>. The MASE<\/strong> has submitted to Palazzo Chigi<\/strong> a draft enabling law to regulate nuclear energy production, including fusion<\/strong> and hydrogen from nuclear sources<\/strong>. The government will have 24 months<\/strong> to adopt the implementing decrees.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overall, 2025 appears to be following in the footsteps of 2024<\/strong> for the Italian renewable-energy sector. Whether a true turning point will occur depends not only on how quickly policy action<\/strong> addresses the current industrial crisis, but also on how the energy sector responds to the re-emerging gas emergency<\/strong>\u2014a challenge that, hopefully, the Russia\u2013Ukraine peace process<\/strong> could help mitigate.<\/p>\n\n\n

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The performance of the worst and best-performing stocks<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The IREX Index continued the negative trend that began in … <\/p>\n

approfondisci <\/i><\/a><\/p>\n

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