{"id":30991,"date":"2025-05-19T09:25:07","date_gmt":"2025-05-19T07:25:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.althesys.com\/thinktank\/la-primavera-spinge-lirex-nuovo-rialzo-ad-aprile\/"},"modified":"2025-10-15T10:38:47","modified_gmt":"2025-10-15T08:38:47","slug":"la-primavera-spinge-lirex-nuovo-rialzo-ad-aprile","status":"publish","type":"thinktank","link":"https:\/\/www.althesys.com\/en\/thinktank\/la-primavera-spinge-lirex-nuovo-rialzo-ad-aprile\/","title":{"rendered":"Spring boosts the IREX: another increase in April"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

The performance of the main Borsa Italiana indices and the IREX Index<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The IREX Index continued its upward trajectory: after the sharp fall of -18.3% in February and the rebound of +11.2% in March, it posted a +16.5% increase in April<\/strong>, closing at 18,841 points<\/strong>. However, this recovery is still insufficient to return to January levels, remaining 3% below<\/strong> that threshold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In April 2025<\/strong>, the main European stock indices showed moderate stability: the DAX<\/strong> rose by 1.5%<\/strong>, the IBEX<\/strong> by 1.2%<\/strong>, while the CAC<\/strong> slipped slightly by 0.3%<\/strong>. In contrast, energy commodities recorded significant declines: Brent crude<\/strong> fell by 15.5%<\/strong>, TTF gas<\/strong> by 21.1%<\/strong>, and the PUN<\/strong> by 17.2%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Italian small and mid-cap renewables displayed mixed performances, influenced by specific corporate events. Seri Industrial<\/strong> recorded the sharpest increase (+26.2%<\/strong>) following the announcement of a \u20ac150 million financing package<\/strong> for the expansion of the Teverola 2 gigafactory<\/strong>. Alerion<\/strong> also performed well (+17.2%<\/strong>), supported by the confirmation of its 2025 guidance<\/strong> and the approval of a \u20ac0.61 per-share dividend<\/strong>. Conversely, Iniziative Bresciane<\/strong> fell by 6.1%<\/strong>, despite issuing a \u20ac5 million minibond<\/strong> and distributing a scrip dividend<\/strong>, likely penalized by profit-taking or investor caution. The weakest result came from EEMS<\/strong> (-11.6%<\/strong>), which postponed approval of its 2024 financial statements<\/strong>, increasing uncertainty among investors. Overall, the market rewarded companies with clear industrial strategies and active development plans, while penalizing those with limited visibility or signs of instability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2025<\/strong>, the global economy has slowed due to escalating trade tensions, triggered by generalized U.S. tariffs<\/strong> and retaliatory measures. Growth forecasts have been revised downward, with strong uncertainty weighing on investment and international trade, while global inflation remains elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Advanced economies<\/strong> are among the hardest hit: growth is expected at 1.4% in 2025<\/strong> and 1.5% in 2026<\/strong> (IMF). The United States<\/strong>, at the center of the tariff conflict, is forecast to halve its growth compared to 2024, reaching +1.8% in 2025<\/strong> and +1.7% in 2026<\/strong>, due to political uncertainty, weaker domestic demand, and trade disruption. In China<\/strong>, growth is expected to remain at 4.0%<\/strong> in both 2025 and 2026, well below pre-pandemic levels, constrained by U.S. trade barriers and global uncertainty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the Eurozone<\/strong>, growth remains weak, with +0.8% in 2025<\/strong> and a slight improvement to +1.2% in 2026<\/strong>. Germany<\/strong>, highly dependent on exports, shows zero growth in 2025<\/strong> and a modest +0.9%<\/strong> in 2026. France<\/strong> maintains a slightly better pace (+1.0%<\/strong> in both years), while Spain<\/strong> stands out with stronger dynamics (+2.5% in 2025<\/strong> and +1.8% in 2026<\/strong>), supported by lower exposure to tariff tensions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Italy<\/strong>, GDP grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter<\/strong> and 0.6% year-on-year<\/strong> in the first quarter of 2025, driven particularly by the agriculture<\/strong> and industrial<\/strong> sectors. For the full year, the IMF<\/strong> expects growth of 0.4%<\/strong>, set to double in 2026. Employment rose by 0.9%<\/strong>, with improvements across age groups and contract types. Harmonized inflation<\/strong> stood at 2.1%<\/strong>, stable compared to the previous month, while business and consumer confidence<\/strong> remained weak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Italian renewable-energy sector<\/strong> continues to represent one of the most dynamic components of the economy, though it still operates within a framework marked by regulatory and financial uncertainty. The most significant event of the month was ARERA\u2019s publication of the consultation document (DCO)<\/strong> on the maximum premium for MACSE<\/strong>, the capacity support mechanism for energy-storage systems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the incentives front, however, no substantial progress was made regarding the FER X Decree<\/strong>. The transitional version foresees only one auction during 2025<\/strong>, raising concerns among operators due to strike prices deemed too low<\/strong>, which could discourage full participation despite the high number of projects already authorized or nearing authorization. Despite these issues, structural data confirm a strong momentum in the sector. According to the IREX Annual Report 2025<\/strong>, the past year saw an acceleration in M&A activity in Italy, with 1,834 transactions<\/strong> (+55% compared to 2023<\/strong>), installed capacity reaching 81.6 GW<\/strong>, and an overall value of \u20ac121 billion<\/strong>. Within this context, the recent recovery of the IREX Index<\/strong> signals a cautious return of investor confidence<\/strong> in the renewables market.<\/p>\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

The performance of the four worst- and best-performing stocks<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The performance of the main Borsa Italiana indices and the … <\/p>\n

approfondisci <\/i><\/a><\/p>\n

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