{"id":30984,"date":"2025-06-18T12:02:27","date_gmt":"2025-06-18T10:02:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.althesys.com\/thinktank\/lirex-torna-a-calare-mentre-cresce-lattesa-per-le-nuove-misure\/"},"modified":"2025-10-15T10:27:49","modified_gmt":"2025-10-15T08:27:49","slug":"lirex-torna-a-calare-mentre-cresce-lattesa-per-le-nuove-misure","status":"publish","type":"thinktank","link":"https:\/\/www.althesys.com\/en\/thinktank\/lirex-torna-a-calare-mentre-cresce-lattesa-per-le-nuove-misure\/","title":{"rendered":"The IREX Index declines again as expectations rise for new measures"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

The performance of the main Borsa Italiana indices and the IREX Index<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

After two months of positive results, the IREX Index fell again (-4.7%). The decline was contained only thanks to a partial rebound in the final days of the month, supported by the good performance of a few companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In May 2025<\/strong>, the main European stock indices posted mixed performances: the DAX rose by 6.7%, the IBEX by 6.5%, while the CAC recorded a slight decline (-0.2%). Energy commodities increased, while the PUN<\/strong> fell: Brent<\/strong> rose by +1.2%, TTF gas<\/strong> by +10.2%, and the PUN<\/strong> decreased by -6.3%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Italian small and mid-cap renewables continued to show heterogeneous results. EEMS<\/strong> recorded an impressive increase (+42.2%), following the settlement of a past-due debt from previous financial years. Ecosuntek<\/strong> ranked second (+3.4%), benefiting from positive analyst assessments of its development plan. The worst performers were Iniziative Bresciane<\/strong> (-6.5%) and Innovatec<\/strong> (-16.3%). The former still suffers from uncertainty after the resignation of its CEO, while the latter was not rewarded by the market following recent plant disposals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These results unfold against a global backdrop where 2025 growth<\/strong> is projected to slow to 2.9%<\/strong>, down from 3.3% in 2024<\/strong> (OECD), constrained by widespread tariffs, political uncertainty, and tighter financial conditions. The largest impact is expected in the United States, Canada, and Mexico<\/strong>, though emerging economies are also slowing. Global trade is losing momentum (+2.8% in 2025 vs. +3.8% in 2024), hampered by rising transaction costs and a decline in private investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation in G20 countries<\/strong> is easing but remains high (3.6% in 2025<\/strong>), with U.S. levels exceeding 3.8%<\/strong>. Fiscal policies remain cautious, except in countries such as China<\/strong> and Germany<\/strong>, where public spending could sustain demand in 2026. Overall, the outlook remains fragile: renewed trade tensions, financial turbulence, and inflationary pressures could further deteriorate global conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2025<\/strong>, growth in the EU<\/strong> and euro area<\/strong> remains weak, at 1.1%<\/strong> and 0.9%<\/strong>, respectively\u2014essentially unchanged from 2024 (European Commission). This marks a downward revision from autumn forecasts, reflecting the impact of U.S. tariffs and uncertainty over trade policies. Investment continues to be weighed down by high financing costs and weak confidence, especially in construction and capital goods. Conversely, private consumption<\/strong> is growing, supported by higher employment and improving purchasing power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation is slowing faster than expected: in the euro area<\/strong>, it is forecast at 2.1% in 2025<\/strong> and 1.7% in 2026<\/strong>, falling below the ECB\u2019s target. Across the EU, prices are expected to follow a similar path, reaching 1.9% by 2026<\/strong>. Public deficits remain stable at -3.3%<\/strong>, while unemployment shows a slight downward trend, with rates expected at 6.3% in 2025<\/strong> and 6.1% in 2026<\/strong> in the euro area. The improvement anticipated in 2026 (+1.5% in the EU and +1.4% in the euro area) will be driven by renewed investment and stronger domestic demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Italy<\/strong>, GDP is projected to grow by 0.6% in 2025<\/strong>, accelerating to 0.8% in 2026<\/strong>, entirely driven by domestic demand (ISTAT). The main boost is expected from consumption and investment<\/strong>, supported by rising wages, growing employment (+1.1% and +1.2%), and the completion of the PNRR<\/strong>. However, net exports<\/strong> will continue to weigh negatively on GDP, affected by uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies. Investment, strong in early 2025, is expected to slow mid-year before regaining momentum in 2026 with the Transition 5.0<\/strong> plan and a more accommodative monetary stance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation, after peaking early in 2025, is projected at 1.8% in 2025<\/strong> and 1.6% in 2026<\/strong>, supported by lower energy prices and a stronger euro. Despite a lively first quarter, foreign trade<\/strong> is expected to contribute slightly negatively to annual growth in both 2025 and 2026, as imports outpace exports. Nevertheless, the trade balance<\/strong> will remain in surplus (2.2% of GDP in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026), reflecting the resilience of Italy\u2019s external sector amid uncertainty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Italian renewables sector<\/strong> continues to move between high potential and structural obstacles. The 4.7% drop in the IREX Index after two months of growth may be only a temporary setback but has reignited concerns about the sector\u2019s fundamentals. Operators are awaiting the transitional FER X auction<\/strong>, still without a confirmed date, but already perceived as high-risk. The large number of ready projects could push strike prices<\/strong> down, discouraging participation. The option of selling directly on the market is becoming less viable, also due to the compression of capture rates<\/strong> observed in more mature European markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the medium term, the only certainty could come from the MACSE<\/strong>, which aims to stabilize prices during hours of high production from intermittent sources. Progress remains limited on other key instruments such as energy release<\/strong>. After months of stalemate, this measure was informally cleared by the European Commission<\/strong> through a comfort letter expected soon. The reference price will rise from \u20ac65 to \u20ac67\/MWh<\/strong> to avoid violations of State aid rules. However, issues remain concerning reimbursement mechanisms and the publication of rankings, which have been stalled since March. Finally, on the grid-connection front<\/strong>, the government announced a regulatory solution to prevent network congestion, though implementation timelines have yet to be defined.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

The performance of the four worst- and best-performing stocks<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The performance of the main Borsa Italiana indices and the … <\/p>\n

approfondisci <\/i><\/a><\/p>\n

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